I have no idea what the leaders of the Democratic Party will do between now and the opening of the party’s national convention on August 19. A lot of them probably still think Joe Biden can defeat Donald Trump on November 5. They may be right, but I’m skeptical.
And it’s not only this year’s election I’m worried about. What if Biden loses the ability to physically and mentally function during a second term? It’s a tragic thing to contemplate, but it’s a possibility that looks increasingly plausible. Is Kamala Harris up to the task? Quite a lot of Americans have their doubts about her. It’s also not at all clear she could beat Trump herself.
Scrapping the current ticket and picking two new leaders is a risky move. But so is continuing with the current one. A growing number of Democrats think Biden should drop out. And some of the electorate’s concerns about Biden, like age and mental fitness, also apply to Trump, if only to lesser extents. A pair of fresh faces (not only in terms of age, but of not being longtime creatures of Washington) could energize the party and reinspire a lot of skeptical voters to give the Democrats another chance.
If Biden drops out, my choice is for Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (age 52) to replace him. She’s a renowned two-term chief executive of an archetypal swing state, who less than two years ago defeated her Republican opponent by double digits. She has a record to be proud of. Under her leadership Michigan has:
Kept abortion legal after the repeal of Roe v. Wade
Preserved affordable health care for millions of people
Cracked down on surprise medical bills
Invested in major infrastructure upgrades
Repealed an anti-union “right to work” law
Made job training and college more affordable
Passed a red flag gun control law
Reduced the state’s debt, making possible its first credit upgrade in nearly a decade
Furthermore, Whitmer’s popularity in her home state could allow her to carry it even if she took a strong pro-Israel stance. Despite Michigan’s sizeable Arab American population, she may not feel a need to court them by calling for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza or limits on aid to the IDF. American opinion on the whole is still very sympathetic to Israel, and Democrats have far more to gain by courting Nikki Haley’s supporters from the Republican primaries than by fretting about AIPAC (something that doesn’t even go down well in many Democratic circles).
For Whitmer’s running mate, my choice would be Georgia Senator Raphael Warnock (age 54). Also from a swing state, he knows how to win over purple people as well as rallying the blue base. His presence on the ticket could stem the erosion of black support for Democrats. His background as a minister, one who talks about his faith publicly, could ignite a process of Democrats deliberately reaching out to conservative-leaning Christian voters. Indeed, the fact that he is pastor of the same church as Martin Luther King Jr., and that before his election to the Senate he dove into causes like voter registration and health care for the poor, could remind the left of the great power of Christian faith in achieving progressive goals - especially at a time when an increasingly reactionary right is advocating overtly for notions like “public life should be rooted in Christianity.”
A fresh, diverse, swing-state, left-of-center-but-not-hard-left pair. Appealing to the party base, with the potential to win over a lot of moderates and independents skeptical of Biden and Harris. If we want to keep Trump from returning, and we’re not absolutely sure Biden is up to the task, this is the kind of ticket Democrats should go with.